Artikel
When is Enough Evidence Enough? – Using Systematic Decision Analysis and Value-of-Information Analysis to Determine the Need for Further Evidence
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Veröffentlicht: | 11. März 2013 |
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Gliederung
Text
Target group: All Stakeholders involved or interested in how to determine whether or not further evidence is needed to make decisions.
Background: Decision Analysis and Value-of-Information Analysis (DA-VOI) provide a systematic, quantitative methodological framework that explicitly considers the uncertainty surrounding the currently available evidence to guide healthcare decisions. Using best available existing evidence, this approach focuses on the likelihood of making a wrong decision if the new intervention is adopted. The value of performing further studies and gathering additional evidence is based on the extent to which further information will reduce this uncertainty. The quantitatively framework values the additional information to be generated by further research, and considers the decision maker’s objectives and resource constraints.
Content of the Tutorial:
- Motivation:
In medical decision making under uncertainty, there are two fundamental questions. The first fundamental question is: “Given the best available evidence (and its uncertainty), which decision should be made for now?”. The second type of question is: "Once the decision has been made for now, and given the degree of the remaining uncertainty, should we gather further evidence (i.e., perform further studies), and if yes, which studies (e.g. efficacy, side effects, quality of life, costs etc.) with which sample sizes are needed?" - Introduction to the framework of systematic value-of-information analysis to guide further research:
The theoretical foundations and practical methods of decision analysis and value of information analysis will be explained using simple examples. - Applied case examples in prevention and treatment:
Using applied cases from the published literature in oncology and neurological disorders, results of value-of-information analysis will be presented. It will also be discussed how the DA-VOI framework has been used by HTA agencies to guide further research. - Discussion:
Strengths and limitations will be discussed interactively with the audience and questions from the audience will be answered. - Outlook:
Take-home messages will be derived from the workshop and future challenges will be addressed.
Requirements: none
Workshop Language: English
References
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- Claxton K, Neumann PJ, Araki S, Weinstein MC. Bayesian value-of-information analysis. An application to a policy model of Alzheimer's disease. Int J Technol Assess Health Care. 2001;17(1):38-55.
- 3.
- Claxton KP, Sculpher MJ. Using value of information analysis to prioritise health research: some lessons from recent UK experience. Pharmacoeconomics. 2006;24(11):1055-68.
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- Siebert U. When should decision-analytic modeling be used in the economic evaluation of health care? Eur J Health Econom. 2003;4(3):143-50.